How to break through the Russian blockade of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine - the opinion of the admiral of the US Navy
Retired Admiral James Stavridis on international experience that can be used to unblock Ukrainian exports through Black Sea ports.
James Stavridis is a retired admiral of the US Navy, who held such positions as Commander-in-Chief of the US Southern Command (2006-2009), Commander of the European Command of the US Armed Forces, and Supreme Commander of the Joint NATO Forces in Europe (2009-2013). In different periods of service, Stavridis took part in operations to escort oil tankers from the Persian Gulf and combat piracy off the coast of Africa. The admiral proposes to apply this experience to unblock Ukrainian seaports for delivery to foreign markets of Ukrainian agricultural products. He wrote about this in his column on Bloomberg, the translation of which is provided by TTS.
In the late 1980s, when I served on a guided-missile destroyer, we were assigned a mission in the Persian Gulf. In the midst of the so-called "tanker war" with Iraq, Iran tried to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for Iraqis.
The rest of the world needed to support the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, and a rather dramatic solution was chosen: to escort convoys of oil tankers flying the US flag.
The operation, named Earnest Will, was generally successful and lasted from the hot summer of 1987 to the fall of 1988 (although a great tragedy occurred during this period - the crash of an Iranian airliner that killed 290 people). Earnest Will kept the oil flowing and left the Iranians with leverage over Iraq. The cruiser Valley Forge escorted by us (the destroyer on which Stavridis served - TTS) successfully returned from a mission that, in turn, had a great impact on global geopolitics and energy supplies.
Since today the world is facing food shortages due to Russia's illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports, the United States and its allies should consider similar measures.
The share of Ukraine in the world market of wheat is significant (approximately 7% of world exports), as well as in the market of sunflower oil and other important agricultural products. Russia's actions are not only illegal from the point of view of international law, but they may well cause famine in the Middle East and North Africa - already unstable hot spots.
Russian President Vladimir Putin controls the northern part of the Black Sea, thanks to the fact that his fleet, consisting of more than two dozen large warships, is undoubtedly the most powerful in the region. Having 25 thousand sailors, about 40 surface warships and 7 submarines, the fleet poses a threat even after the loss of its flagship - the Slava-class shipMoskva after being hit by a Ukrainian cruise missile in April.
While NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have combat-ready forces in the Black Sea, Ukraine has virtually no navy left to defy the Russian blockade. The Russians have lined its coast and are trying to stifle the economy by preventing Ukrainian agricultural products from reaching their designated markets.
Moscow is pursuing a strategy reminiscent of that used by the military forces of the North against the agrarian South during the American Civil War. The maritime part of the Anaconda Plan, named after the snake that chokes its victims to death, has deprived the Confederacy of hard currency by preventing cotton exports. Several European countries challenged the naval blockade, but to no avail.
Putin is copying entire pages from Lincoln's "play", and this is having an effect. Now the Russians have offered negotiations to allow the shipment of Ukrainian grain in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, to which the US and its allies will not agree.
Which brings us to the idea of breaking the blockade by escorting merchant ships. The first most obvious task is to decide who will accompany? This can be done under the auspices of the United Nations, NATO, or a coalition of countries ready to undertake such a provocative and dangerous mission.
The most likely approach would be the latter, led by the US and likely involving the UK and France, and possibly the Black Sea states of Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria.
The second task will be to clear mines, because both the Ukrainians and the Russians use mines to control the waters along the Ukrainian coast. For such purposes, NATO has a permanent group of minesweepers. This flotilla operates under the command of one of my successors, Tod Walters.
The third task is that the countries implementing the deblockade will have to cooperate with the main transit countries and traders who transport or purchase grain or other products. This task can be solved with the help of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). As part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in the international response to piracy off the coast of Africa during my time as Commander of NATO Allied Forces Europe (2009-2013 - CFTS).
The operation is likely to require some of the merchant ships to be re-flagged by the countries involved in the operation, as the US did in the Persian Gulf.
Finally, our task is to inform Russia about this plan and make sure that it understands that the coalition that will conduct the operation will not tolerate any interference - but also does not want to engage in combat with the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Moscow is likely to protest, but the very idea of attacking NATO warships in international waters looks unlikely. If, no matter what, the Russians do something stupid, the answer will be proportionate use of force.
We have reached a tipping point: grain supplies have been cut off, the Ukrainian economy is ruined, and the coming food crisis must be avoided. The Western Allies should take a closer look at the Earnest Will style approach. The condoning of Putin's actions on the high seas cannot continue.