PROJET44 TELLS ABOUT THE NEW WORLD SHIPPING TRENDS
The other day, the American IT provider Project44 distributed a press release in which it talked about the current trends in world shipping. The material for the analysis was mainly information collected on its own platform. So, Project44 claims that the situation in the second half of 2022 is radically different from what we saw at the beginning and in the first half of the year.
Thus, even before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine, trends in the industry were formed under the influence of quarantines in China, which reduced production and created major problems in global supply chains. Also, bottlenecks on the railways and lack of intermodal capacities in the USA and the EU were a feature of the first half of the year.
But with the beginning of the second half of the year, isolation became the dominant theme. According to Projet44, China's industrial production fell by 30% as consumers in major markets began to actively order goods and services outside of China. In addition, the increase in the cost of fossil fuels, which began after February 24, played a role.
Project44 analysts pay special attention to the punctuality of delivery by sea transport. On the routes between Asia and Europe until the beginning of 2022, 70-80% of vessels were delayed by no more than a day. This figure bottomed out in January 2022, and was around 10% by May. Since then, no particular improvements have been seen. Everyone has to get used to the fact that most of the time, shipments arrive with significant delays.
On the other hand, the positive news at Project44 is that shipping delays between Asia and the US West Coast are gradually decreasing. Already 75% of ships are delayed by no more than a day. But this is still significantly less than before the pandemic (90%). Also, the delivery time here decreased from an average of 45 days as of January to 26 days in June.
Meanwhile, ships take an average of 45 days from China to Europe (50 in January). The acceleration is still taking place, despite the fact that after the rise in oil prices, shipowners prefer that the ships goand at low speed, when you can save fuel. Let us remind you that before the Covid pandemic, the norm for shipping by sea from the PRC to the EU was 30 days.
Finally, the specific weight of empty flights decreases. The worst situation was observed in May. Currently, only 30% of flights are carried out without cargo. But the indicator will continue to fall until it reaches the reporting level of 20%, experts believe.